My most recent post discussed how I narrowed down my player list going into the draft season. But you can’t avoid risk completely, or at least you can’t have much fun if you do. So when is it Ok to take risks, and how much risk should you take, and when in the draft should you take it?
These things vary from person to person. My personal risk tolerance is very low so I make a lot of safe, “boring” picks. As such, my first 9 picks in my F&F league draft were very safe and predictable. In round 10 I took a calculated risk, albeit a small one. I took Corey Hart.
Hart has solid skills so there is no risk there, but he did have a minor knee procedure this spring and a weight room accident as icing on the cake. But the prognosis was that he would miss 2 weeks maximum, and now it looks like it will only be the first series or two. For such little risk Hart was being discounted too steeply so I bought in. That’s how I roll.
Round 15 was my next bite, which is only marginally riskier than round 10, especially for a young talent like Dexter Fowler. It wasn’t that long ago that I had Dexter Fowler and Desmond Jennings in the same group, and Jennings goes much higher in drafts now. Now, I’m not saying they will put up equal production, but Fowler does have more experience, is nearing his peak age for performance, and is already an established producer in runs and steals. And don’t forget he plays half of his games in Coors field, which may get him into the double digits in homeruns sooner than you think.
Anything round 20 or later really isn’t too risky, especially in a keeper league. That’s when I took Juan Nicasio (even if he does pitch for Colorado). I like what I saw last year and his minor league performance says he is capable of even more. Alex Presley is another young player that I grabbed at the end of the draft (Mr. Irrelevant). Great speed, good batting average skills, not much power yet, but with a full time job he should be a candidate for NL ROY.
You could argue that I took on some risk with older players like Carlos Lee, Derek Jeter, and Chipper Jones. But these are guys I took to fill in small gaps and they can be easily replaced. Besides, the price was right and these guys can be counted on for steady, if unsexy, numbers.
So, the Champ takes very little injury risk, rolls the dice very few times on young players, and generally puts people to sleep with his draft. It can lull you to sleep….and it’s close to the same strategy that has won 5 of the past 6 years in my F&F league. We’ll know in six months if it works just as well as previous years.
Finally….let the games begin!
Posted: April 4, 2012 in Fantasy Baseball CommentaryTags: baseball, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Miami Marlins, MLB, Ozzie Guillen, SABRmetrics, St. Louis Cardinals
I realize we had some token games last weekend but tonight really kicks off the MLB season for me. And what an interesting game to kick it off – Cards vs. Marlins.
You can’t read too much into one game so I’ll skip any deep analysis. Here’s a random though though: how about Ozzie Guillen doing what stat dorks have been advocating for years? He’s got his best hitter batting first rather than third, which is where the rest of the world thought he would go.
Confused? Stat dorks have argued for years against the conventional wisdom of placing your best hitter in the #3 slot. The leadoff hitter gets the most at-bats per game so, the SD’s argue, your best batter should hit first so that he gets the most at-bats. Also, how many times per game does the leadoff man really leadoff? Only once is he guaranteed that spot. After that it is totally dependent on how the team hits.
I’m sure Guillen didn’t think of it that way, and he’ll likely tinker with this group a lot before settling on a semi-regular lineup. But it was quite a surprise nonetheless.
And yes, I said Jose Reyes is the best hitter on the Florida Miami team, NOT Hanley Ramirez.